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Realistic Handwritten Multi-Digit Writer (MDW) Number Recognition Challenges

Wagstaff, Kiri L.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Isolated digit classification has served as a motivating problem for decades of machine learning research. In real settings, numbers often occur as multiple digits, all written by the same person. Examples include ZIP Codes, handwritten check amounts, and appointment times. In this work, we leverage knowledge about the writers of NIST digit images to create more realistic benchmark multi-digit writer (MDW) data sets. As expected, we find that classifiers may perform well on isolated digits yet do poorly on multi-digit number recognition. If we want to solve real number recognition problems, additional advances are needed. The MDW benchmarks come with task-specific performance metrics that go beyond typical error calculations to more closely align with real-world impact. They also create opportunities to develop methods that can leverage task-specific knowledge to improve performance well beyond that of individual digit classification methods.


WebDancer: Towards Autonomous Information Seeking Agency

Wu, Jialong, Li, Baixuan, Fang, Runnan, Yin, Wenbiao, Zhang, Liwen, Tao, Zhengwei, Zhang, Dingchu, Xi, Zekun, Fu, Gang, Jiang, Yong, Xie, Pengjun, Huang, Fei, Zhou, Jingren

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Addressing intricate real-world problems necessitates in-depth information seeking and multi-step reasoning. Recent progress in agentic systems, exemplified by Deep Research, underscores the potential for autonomous multi-step research. In this work, we present a cohesive paradigm for building end-to-end agentic information seeking agents from a data-centric and training-stage perspective. Our approach consists of four key stages: (1) browsing data construction, (2) trajectories sampling, (3) supervised fine-tuning for effective cold start, and (4) reinforcement learning for enhanced generalisation. We instantiate this framework in a web agent based on the ReAct, WebDancer. Empirical evaluations on the challenging information seeking benchmarks, GAIA and WebWalkerQA, demonstrate the strong performance of WebDancer, achieving considerable results and highlighting the efficacy of our training paradigm. Further analysis of agent training provides valuable insights and actionable, systematic pathways for developing more capable agentic models. The codes and demo will be released in https://github.com/Alibaba-NLP/WebAgent.


Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm for Spatiotemporal Forecasting of HIV Clusters

Roosan, Don, Nirzhor, Saif, Khan, Rubayat, Hai, Fahmida, Haidar, Mohammad Rifat

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

HIV epidemiological data is increasingly complex, requiring advanced computation for accurate cluster detection and forecasting. We employed quantum-accelerated machine learning to analyze HIV prevalence at the ZIP-code level using AIDSVu and synthetic SDoH data for 2022. Our approach compared classical clustering (DBSCAN, HDBSCAN) with a quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA), developed a hybrid quantum-classical neural network for HIV prevalence forecasting, and used quantum Bayesian networks to explore causal links between SDoH factors and HIV incidence. The QAOA-based method achieved 92% accuracy in cluster detection within 1.6 seconds, outperforming classical algorithms. Meanwhile, the hybrid quantum-classical neural network predicted HIV prevalence with 94% accuracy, surpassing a purely classical counterpart. Quantum Bayesian analysis identified housing instability as a key driver of HIV cluster emergence and expansion, with stigma exerting a geographically variable influence. These quantum-enhanced methods deliver greater precision and efficiency in HIV surveillance while illuminating critical causal pathways. This work can guide targeted interventions, optimize resource allocation for PrEP, and address structural inequities fueling HIV transmission.


A Framework for Multi-source Privacy Preserving Epidemic Analysis

Guan, Zihan, Zhao, Zhiyuan, Tian, Fengwei, Nguyen, Dung, Bhattacharjee, Payel, Tandon, Ravi, Prakash, B. Aditya, Vullikanti, Anil

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

It is now well understood that diverse datasets provide a lot of value in key epidemiology and public health analyses, such as forecasting and nowcasting, development of epidemic models, evaluation and design of interventions and resource allocation. Some of these datasets are often sensitive, and need adequate privacy protections. There are many models of privacy, but Differential Privacy (DP) has become a de facto standard because of its strong guarantees, without making models about adversaries. In this paper, we develop a framework the integrates deep learning and epidemic models to simultaneously perform epidemic forecasting and learning a mechanistic model of epidemic spread, while incorporating multiple datasets for these analyses, including some with DP guarantees. We demonstrate our framework using a realistic but synthetic financial dataset with DP; such a dataset has not been used in such epidemic analyses. We show that this dataset provides significant value in forecasting and learning an epidemic model, even when used with DP guarantees.


HADA: Human-AI Agent Decision Alignment Architecture

Pitkäranta, Tapio, Pitkäranta, Leena

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present HADA (Human-AI Agent Decision Alignment), a protocol- and framework agnostic reference architecture that keeps both large language model (LLM) agents and legacy algorithms aligned with organizational targets and values. HADA wraps any algorithm or LLM in role-specific stakeholder agents -- business, data-science, audit, ethics, and customer -- each exposing conversational APIs so that technical and non-technical actors can query, steer, audit, or contest every decision across strategic, tactical, and real-time horizons. Alignment objectives, KPIs, and value constraints are expressed in natural language and are continuously propagated, logged, and versioned while thousands of heterogeneous agents run on different orchestration stacks. A cloud-native proof of concept packages a production credit-scoring model (getLoanDecision) and deploys it on Docker/Kubernetes/Python; five scripted retail-bank scenarios show how target changes, parameter tweaks, explanation requests, and ethics triggers flow end to end through the architecture. Evaluation followed the Design-Science Research Methodology. Walkthrough observation and log inspection demonstrated complete coverage of six predefined objectives: every role could invoke conversational control, trace KPIs and value constraints, detect and mitigate ZIP-code bias, and reproduce full decision lineage, independent of the underlying LLM or agent library. Contributions: (1) an open-source HADA architecture, (2) a mid-range design theory for human-AI alignment in multi-agent systems, and (3) empirical evidence that framework-agnostic, protocol-compliant stakeholder agents improve accuracy, transparency, and ethical compliance in real-world decision pipelines.


HouseTS: A Large-Scale, Multimodal Spatiotemporal U.S. Housing Dataset

Wang, Shengkun, Sun, Yanshen, Chen, Fanglan, Wang, Linhan, Ramakrishnan, Naren, Lu, Chang-Tien, Chen, Yinlin

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate house-price forecasting is essential for investors, planners, and researchers. However, reproducible benchmarks with sufficient spatiotemporal depth and contextual richness for long horizon prediction remain scarce. To address this, we introduce HouseTS a large scale, multimodal dataset covering monthly house prices from March 2012 to December 2023 across 6,000 ZIP codes in 30 major U.S. metropolitan areas. The dataset includes over 890K records, enriched with points of Interest (POI), socioeconomic indicators, and detailed real estate metrics. To establish standardized performance baselines, we evaluate 14 models, spanning classical statistical approaches, deep neural networks (DNNs), and pretrained time-series foundation models. We further demonstrate the value of HouseTS in a multimodal case study, where a vision language model extracts structured textual descriptions of geographic change from time stamped satellite imagery. This enables interpretable, grounded insights into urban evolution. HouseTS is hosted on Kaggle, while all preprocessing pipelines, benchmark code, and documentation are openly maintained on GitHub to ensure full reproducibility and easy adoption.


SWE-Lancer: Can Frontier LLMs Earn $1 Million from Real-World Freelance Software Engineering?

Miserendino, Samuel, Wang, Michele, Patwardhan, Tejal, Heidecke, Johannes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce SWE-Lancer, a benchmark of over 1,400 freelance software engineering tasks from Upwork, valued at \$1 million USD total in real-world payouts. SWE-Lancer encompasses both independent engineering tasks--ranging from \$50 bug fixes to \$32,000 feature implementations--and managerial tasks, where models choose between technical implementation proposals. Independent tasks are graded with end-to-end tests triple-verified by experienced software engineers, while managerial decisions are assessed against the choices of the original hired engineering managers. We evaluate model performance and find that frontier models are still unable to solve the majority of tasks. To facilitate future research, we open-source a unified Docker image and a public evaluation split, SWE-Lancer Diamond (https://github.com/openai/SWELancer-Benchmark). By mapping model performance to monetary value, we hope SWE-Lancer enables greater research into the economic impact of AI model development.


Community search signatures as foundation features for human-centered geospatial modeling

Sun, Mimi, Kamath, Chaitanya, Agarwal, Mohit, Muslim, Arbaaz, Yee, Hector, Schottlander, David, Bavadekar, Shailesh, Efron, Niv, Shetty, Shravya, Prasad, Gautam

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Aggregated relative search frequencies offer a unique composite signal reflecting people's habits, concerns, interests, intents, and general information needs, which are not found in other readily available datasets. Temporal search trends have been successfully used in time series modeling across a variety of domains such as infectious diseases, unemployment rates, and retail sales. However, most existing applications require curating specialized datasets of individual keywords, queries, or query clusters, and the search data need to be temporally aligned with the outcome variable of interest. We propose a novel approach for generating an aggregated and anonymized representation of search interest as foundation features at the community level for geospatial modeling. We benchmark these features using spatial datasets across multiple domains. In zip codes with a population greater than 3000 that cover over 95% of the contiguous US population, our models for predicting missing values in a 20% set of holdout counties achieve an average $R^2$ score of 0.74 across 21 health variables, and 0.80 across 6 demographic and environmental variables. Our results demonstrate that these search features can be used for spatial predictions without strict temporal alignment, and that the resulting models outperform spatial interpolation and state of the art methods using satellite imagery features.


S.F. Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly Believes AI Can Boost the Labor Market

TIME - Tech

In an exclusive interview with TIME, San Francisco Federal Reserve president and chief executive Mary Daly said that the explosion of artificial intelligence (AI) could improve the labor market in the long-term and make workers more productive, even as workers fear the rising technology will change or eliminate their jobs. "Jobs are being created, as well as jobs being replaced," Daly said of AI. "If we can get people to upskill or reskill to take the jobs that are being created, we'll have a very successful and growing economy. But that's the burden on us--to make sure that everyone can participate in this changing technological development." TIME sat down with Daly at the Aspen Ideas Festival on June 28 to discuss the nation's monetary policy, a potential softening in the labor market, the role of AI in the workforce, and more. This interview has been condensed and edited for clarity. TIME: Tell me a bit about your role as a Federal Reserve Bank president.


CAVIAR: Categorical-Variable Embeddings for Accurate and Robust Inference

Mukherjee, Anirban, Chang, Hannah Hanwen

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Social science research often hinges on the relationship between categorical variables and outcomes. We introduce CAVIAR, a novel method for embedding categorical variables that assume values in a high-dimensional ambient space but are sampled from an underlying manifold. Our theoretical and numerical analyses outline challenges posed by such categorical variables in causal inference. Specifically, dynamically varying and sparse levels can lead to violations of the Donsker conditions and a failure of the estimation functionals to converge to a tight Gaussian process. Traditional approaches, including the exclusion of rare categorical levels and principled variable selection models like LASSO, fall short. CAVIAR embeds the data into a lower-dimensional global coordinate system. The mapping can be derived from both structured and unstructured data, and ensures stable and robust estimates through dimensionality reduction. In a dataset of direct-to-consumer apparel sales, we illustrate how high-dimensional categorical variables, such as zip codes, can be succinctly represented, facilitating inference and analysis.